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New Yorkers will discover who will be their new city leader this election day, in a race that will decide who governs and protects the nation's largest city at a time when Donald Trump has threatened to deploy armed forces to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has pitted two very different Democrats against one another. The contest has turned into an acrimonious showdown, marked by alleged racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the political differences between the two leading contenders that could have major implications for how the party performs in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the young democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has brought international attention. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the former Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the backing of wealthy contributors and corporations.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who defeated Cuomo in the party primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has run on a platform of affordability and promised to freeze rent for about 2 million city residents, has led his rival by significant margins across all surveys conducted in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's election to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

However, Cuomo, who resigned as governor in recent years amid accusations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will fight to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has trashed his opponent's objectives as unachievable, and in the final stretch laughed as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Recently, the independent was strongly criticized as racist after posting an artificial intelligence video that included a slew of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent freeing a convicts.

This represents a rather grubby conclusion to an election that could be critical to the path that the party, struggling in its reaction to the former president's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

If the progressive wins convincingly, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his campaign will be compelled to address a message that has appealed to Americans' anger at inequality, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least a portion of Mamdani's progressive proposals about affordability, given the newcomer has generated an excitement within the Democratic ranks perhaps not witnessed since Bernie Sanders ran for president eight years ago.

However, should Cuomo, who had been expected to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, achieve a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could reinforce national Democrats' current model of cautious, lackluster opposition – a tactic that has angered grassroots members. A New York rejection of the progressive's progressive, positive message could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the wisest course is to stick to the political center – even as surveys show the present version of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Campaign Energy

Voters in the city seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. The candidate's snappy videos on social media, his optimistic vision for New York and his willingness to actually get out and meet people in the city has drawn an army of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them young or new participants.

Negative Tactics

Yet, Cuomo, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the risks against him, the ex-leader has turned to ugly messaging in the final days.

After spending months throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might stick, the independent has concentrated on attacking the candidate personally. He has labelled Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and appeared on Fox Business for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate claimed New York “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It reached a nadir recently, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Campaign Dynamics

The line of attack mirrors much of what the former president, who has sent the national guard to the capital and threatened to do the same to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of wealthy residents, including some who donated to the Republican in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to get the independent elected, as other influential figures have urged the Republican candidate to withdraw from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should not have reached to this. When the assemblyman, one of 150 state legislators, started his mayoral bid in October 2024, few had heard of him, and in truth, barely anyone even noticed.

Cuomo, by contrast, entered smoothly into the contest in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held every edge. The quintessential establishment figure, he had wed a political dynasty member and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became the state's leader in over a decade ago, 17 years after his father, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the same position.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the state legislature in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a more positive vision of the city's direction than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Still, Mamdani has faced difficulties in the final phase, after video emerged appearing to show him implying the New York police department and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the recording, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in recent years. The progressive, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the nation is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was criticizing joint training exercises between the city police and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, Mamdani seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his response to his opponent's escalating attacks.

Mamdani responded to Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a lesson, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our faith.”

Speaking to the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd